Will Return to Office (RTO) Secure Your Job?

The remote work revolution that began in 2020 enabled millions of employees to relocate to more affordable and livable areas. However, as companies increasingly implement return-to-office (RTO) mandates, many workers now face difficult choices. Whether to move back to expensive urban centers or seek alternative career paths is a pressing concern for those affected by these policies. 

Will those who do move back actually make their employment more secure?

Examples of Organizations Mandating RTO 2025

The Scope of the Issue: How Many People Relocated Due to Remote Work?

The pandemic saw an unprecedented shift in work dynamics, with research indicating that up to 15 million Americans moved due to remote work opportunities. Cities like Austin, Boise, and Nashville experienced population booms, while large metropolitan areas such as New York and San Francisco saw an exodus of workers seeking lower living costs and better quality of life.

According to a 2022 Pew Research Center study, approximately 22% of remote workers moved to a different city or state since 2020. The migration trend was largely driven by affordability, space, and a desire for a healthier work-life balance.

The Real Estate Ripple Effect: What Happens When Workers Must Return?

The widespread relocation of remote workers had profound impacts on suburban and rural real estate markets:

• Surging Home Prices: Demand for suburban and rural properties skyrocketed, leading to increased housing costs in previously overlooked areas.
• Declining Urban Demand: As people left cities, rental prices in metropolitan areas temporarily declined, although they are now rebounding due to RTO mandates.
• Market Uncertainty: With RTO mandates, many homeowners in remote areas face potential financial strain if they are forced to sell their properties and relocate back to urban centers.

Alternatives to RTO Compliance: Exploring New Career Paths

For employees unable or unwilling to relocate, several career alternatives exist:

Weighing the Pros and Cons of Moving Back to the Big City

Pros of Moving Back:

• Career Growth: Opportunities for networking and professional advancement.
• Higher Salaries: Some industries still offer higher wages in urban areas.
• Amenities and Services: Access to cultural, educational, and healthcare facilities.

Cons of Moving Back:

• Cost of Living: Significantly higher housing, transportation, and daily expenses.
• Lifestyle Changes: Longer commutes and a potential decrease in quality of life.
• Loss of Flexibility: Increased time spent in transit rather than with family or hobbies.

Is RTO Mandate Often Used as a Strategy to Avoid Paying Severance?

Critics argue that some companies are using RTO mandates as a strategic tool to reduce workforce numbers without offering severance packages. Rather than laying off employees outright, forcing them to return to expensive cities may push them to resign voluntarily. This tactic can save companies significant severance costs and streamline operations.

“Many companies are indeed using RTO mandates as a layoff strategy,” said Dr Gleb Tsipursky, CEO of hybrid work consultancy Disaster Avoidance Experts. “This can be seen in patterns where companies first implement layoffs and then follow with an RTO mandate, or vice versa. A concrete example came from a conversation I had with the CHRO of a major retail company. She shared that she recently spoke to the CHRO of another company who explicitly told her that they are using RTO as a way to have layoffs without paying severance packages.” (source)

The Future of Work: More Job Cuts Ahead?

Even as RTO mandates prompt resignations, some analysts predict further job cuts. Economic uncertainty, automation, and shifting market demands mean that employees must remain adaptable.

Potential scenarios include:

• More Hybrid Work Models: Companies may eventually settle on a balance between remote and in-office work.
• Job Polarization: High-demand roles may retain flexibility, while others face stricter requirements.
• Continued Layoffs: Economic and disruptive technology factors could lead to further workforce reductions in 2024 and beyond.

Conclusion: Making the Best Decision for Your Future

The decision to comply with RTO mandates or explore alternative options is deeply personal. Employees must weigh factors such as financial stability, career aspirations, and personal well-being.

For those intrepid souls who have already pulled up stakes and migrated to new and improved quality of life locations with lower cost of living, consider that RTO could be one of many required adjustments before the organization finds its “new normal” footing. Consider carefully how you would feel if you uprooted again, left your new home behind, signed a rental lease back in the big city and then months later are laid off. It is not an outlier possibility, as many have reported seeing an identifiable trend of layoffs following RTO announcements.

As the future of work continues to evolve, informing yourself about your options and acting early and decisively may be key to long-term stability and success.